2, 565, 2,795 : Future of Planet Earth

As I sat reading this article on my lovely Mac book, my two roommates sat watching Frasier on our large flat screen TV.  I had just finished dithering with my boyfriend about buying flights to California in February. -- Are they cheaper now or later?  Should we drive to Christmas vacation with my family in MN?  -- Gas is so expensive.  As I sit here now, writing this post, I realize that THIS is the issue -- I am the issue.  Intellectually speaking, I can sit here and agree with this article all day, lament about climate change, become genuinely angry when I see pictures of the poor polar bear cub mourning by his dead mother, who drowned carrying him through the icy Arctic waters, futilely trying to find a piece of glacier to rest on.  But the next minute I'm up and worrying about feeding my cats, and going to the store to buy more Diet Coke and eggs, all concern for the environment disintegrated faster than the glaciers.

There is a severe disconnect between my ability to care about an issue and my ability to do anything about it; fundamentally, I just have a short attention span.  As most people do.  Unfortunately for us, excuses aren't going to save 500,000 people from being drowned by the next flood in India or Haiti; its not going to save the cute polar bear cub; it doesn't help the entire island nation of Kiribati, who are moving their whole population to Fiji in anticipation of - I don't know - COMPLETE SUBMERSION! And it probably won't help us, when our corn crops shrivel up, and bacon becomes scarce.  Fortunately, for us little people, there's an identifiable scapegoat in all this.  The oil and gas companies.

Six oil and gas companies -- Exxon Mobile, Shell, Gazprom, Chevron, ConocoPhilipps, and BP -- make up over 25% of our projected carbon emission budget.  What budget you say?  Ok, lets start from the beginning....

During the recent, incredibly futile Copenhagen climate conference, three numbers were identified which tell the future of the planet earth.  The first was the number 2, as in 2 degrees Celsius.  The temperature of the Earth has risen .8 degrees Celsius already, causing a third of summer sea ice in the Arctic to disintegrate, causing 30% of the oceans to become more acidic, and making the ocean atmosphere 5% wetter, drastically increasing the risk of global floods.  Given this information, one should probably be terrified by what a further raise of 1.2 degrees would mean.  However, 2 degrees Celsius is the number agreed upon at the conference as the highest ALLOWABLE temperature raise.  Most scientists agree that it is still too high, but political realism has dictated that they cannot push for any lower.

The second number is 565, as in 565 gigatons.  In order to stay beneath the 2 degrees Celsius mark, we can only emit 565 gigatons further of carbon dioxide. Period.  Unfortunately, our global carbon emissions have been increasing by 3% a year, not decreasing.  With this trend, we will blow our carbon limit in 16 years, within my very foreseeable lifetime.

The third number is 2,795, as in 2,795 gigatons of carbon dioxide. This is the amount of carbon emissions that would be produced just by the oil and gas stores that companies Exxon, BP, Chevron, Shell, ConocoPhillips, and Gazprom ALREADY HAVE.  These are resources that are still in the ground, but have already been counted in share prices, lending rates, and national budgets, resources which would equal 2,795 gigatons.  That is FIVE times our carbon dioxide budget.  And, surprise surprise, these companies have no intention of ceasing exploration.  Fracking, drilling in the Arctic (as ice melts to reveal new sources), etc. will increase this number drastically.

It doesn't take a math genius to realize that, with these figures, we are in SERIOUS SHIT.  These are numbers that have been agreed upon by scientists all over the world, spanning political parties, private and public organizations, conservatives and liberals.  The first number has been accepted internationally, by figures from President Obama to Angela Merkel to the United Arab Emirates.  The last two were developed by the Carbon Tracker Initiative -- a joint effort between financial analysts and environmentalists to predict how climate change will effect stock portfolios. These were not numbers produced by tree hugging liberal hippies living in communes trying to protect the wild salmon. These are numbers generated by financial organizations in order to protect stock holders from the repercussions of their actions.  And they tell us that we are in trouble.

The six oil and gas companies -- with the oil and gas they have right now, ready to burn -- already make up 25% of our carbon emission budget.  The potential to go over that amount is staggering.  And don't think that the Big People Upstairs don't know about this.  Obama, Ms. Merkel, Hugo Chavez, and other political leaders -- even the CEOs of the oil companies themselves -- have all publicly ADMITTED that climate change is the biggest challenge facing the planet today.  Then why don't they do anything about it? The answer is simple, and as such -- deniable: greed and political expediency.  The oil companies are making money hand over foot, politicians are influenced not only by their lobbies but by the fact that they pour money into our economy, and into our pockets.  We, as Americans, want cheaper flights, and cheaper gas for our cars, and cheap power for our flat screens and Mac books...and the oil companies are happy to give it to us...and make themselves severely wealthy in the process.

So, what can we do about it?  The answer is actually pretty simple.  We put a tax on carbon emissions, preferably a high tax with a 'fee and dividend scheme' that would basically charge everyone for their emissions.  We know what is making the oil companies -- and us -- tick: money.  You cut into the profit, you cut into the emissions -- hopefully.  At least that's a start.

And please don't be fooled by the average Republican's excuse for not implementing such a tax: 'So what if there's climate change (which there isn't)? We will just invent our way out of it!..New crop rotating techniques and what-not.'  To this I have three rebuttals: 1) Even IF we can invent crop technologies and air and water purifying technologies fast enough to save ourselves from climate change, these technologies hold challenges of their own.  Recent debates over the health consequences of genetically-modified crops are still unresolved.  Air and Water purification techniques are expensive, and will undoubtedly require cutbacks in use.  Why not start ahead? 2) R&D expenses for the creation of these technologies (not to mention the profit margin) will mean that not everyone can afford them.  We in the first world may be sure to buy our way out of the ruination of the Earth, but we condemn the third world to floods, skin cancer, and drought.  3) Even if we create all the technology we need, generously distribute it to everyone in the world, and all survive merrily, the Earth will never be the same.  Species such as the Siberian Tiger and Polar Bear and Emperor Penguin, the Slow Loris, and the Humpbacked Whale will be extinct.  Our children will ask us, after watching the March of the Penguins, 'Why aren't there any more Penguins?'  What will we say to them?  'O, sorry, Daddy's company was greedy and we didn't care if we polluted the Earth so they all died. '  Not good enough.  And the seasons? The autumnal loveliness of the Fall; the gentle fall of snow and quiet hush of Winter; the lilting melty greenery of Spring; and the hot, humid, BBQ-inspiring fun of Summer? Well, they're already disappearing.  Winters are hotter, wetter, muddier, and brown.  Spring is wet and rainy.  Summer is so hot, you can hardly breathe.  Fall is rainier and colder.  The seasons will slowly disappear, until the only ones are Hot and Cold.  Not good enough.

So, before I get up to clean my apartment and go buy my Diet Coke, I urge you to at least keep these issues in the back of your mind. If our attention spans are too short, precluding any real action, then we should at least appreciate now what will soon be gone.

Note: The original article is no longer available.  Please find a recent report on climate change by Al Jazeera here.  This blog post is also an excellent summary of the Copenhagen Climate Conference.